Saturday, October 23, 2004

It's Probably Nothing....

so I shouldn't even mention it. But 10 days before the election, I'm finding my intuition isn't as rigorous as it used to be. So forgive this one time.

Here's the thing: there is a convergence of - let's call it "chatter" - regarding an impending bombing in the Twin Cities. According to the story, the attack would be nuclear. Whether suitcase or radiological "dirty bomb" is uncertain. The window seems to be Oct 27-31. The Mall of America is a known high-value target.

One, big trigger for this buzz has been the arrest of Delmart Vreeland. It's true, Vreeland is a criminal, but he's more than a criminal. The criminal Vreeland is his "legend." He is also, as was proven in a Toronto court and supported by other covert operatives, an asset of the Office of Naval Intelligence. He stumbled upon advance warning of 9/11, and for several months his Canadian attorneys tried desperately to find a security service which would take heed of it. Vreeland vanished while on bail, awaiting a ruling in his extradition hearing.

That Vreeland turns up now is suspicious enough. That he claims to have allowed himself to be arrested because he's learned of another imminent attack is worrisome. That his warning reportedly confirms what some others have heard - Twin Cities, nuclear, end of October - is ominous.

Compounding the anxiety surrounding Vreeland's reappearance are reports such as John Ashcroft's rare conference call with all 93 US attorneys, in which he allegedly stated that a massive terrorist attack before the election was a certainty; FEMA's "Community Emergency Response Teams" having scheduled a simulated terror attack for November 2; and the August testimony of a Texas National Guardsman, who claimed to have been told that the Bush government would undoubtedly declare martial law on November 1. His interview can be heard here. I can take or leave the over-excited and rather indiscriminate host Alex Jones, but to my ears, the guardsman sounds genuine. And really, we'll know soon enough.

Vreeland and his latest warning are discussed, heatedly, in several other active threads at Democratic Underground, including here, here and here.

In my experience, one way to ensure nightmares don't become prophecies is to talk them out. I hope I haven't given you one in the process.

19 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

jeff:
"chatter" comes from all sorts of places, here is one i have been keeping my eye on recently:

i regularly check in on the Current Electoral Vote website since it does the most comprehensive tracking of polls by states, and a few odd things have happened recently. First, there are many recent polls showing heartland states (Mn, Ia, Wi, etc) dead heats or slightly bush; even Il is shown as only weakly Kerry as was CA a little while back !! and today (sun, oct 24) they show Hi as a toss-up! Clearly (?) bogus polls are being commissioned. why ?

Second, the above site is being fiecely attached by hackers requiring the webmaster to add five new computer servers for protection. (i should add that the site is popular getting between 1 and 2 million hits a day.) in the opinion of the webmaster these attacks are "professional" and not the work of some adolescent. why ?

Third, a recent letter from MMFA to CNN itemises the consistent over-reporting by CNN of polls favorable to Bush even when more recent Kerry favorable polls were available. Why ?

Fourth, apparently only AP will be reporting the electronic voting for nov 2. why ?

chatter is only noise unless it can be connected to other happenings. any thoughts ?

--- bindare

2:34 p.m.  
Blogger Jeff Wells said...

Only AP is exit polling, and they've already filed a story declaring Bush the winner. Guess it'll be an early night for them.

"At this hour, President Bush has won re-election as president by a 47 percent to 43 percent margin in the popular vote nationwide. Ralph Nader has 1 percent of the vote nationwide. That's with 51 percent of the precincts reporting.

"Bush has won 324 electoral votes in 33 states. He is leading in 4 states for a total of 43 more electoral votes."
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/7/155831/700

If it were any other country, what would Americans call it?

3:15 p.m.  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

An addendum to AP predicting Bush 324+ (landslide ? ) win:

My sunday paper has a front page article titled: "Election May Not Be As Close As Predicted: battleground burst for Bush or Kerry could create landslide". Yes, it is by AP's Ron Fournier !!

Here is my bet with my pub pals:

there will be two october surprises not one. i am not certain which comes first (both have advantages) but the two sequences are (1) bomb in Ca, blame islamists, bomb Iran; (2) Israel bombs Iran, islamists blame america, bomb in Ca. In both cases, it is Ca and not Mn that is bombed, Why ? In typical Rovian fashion, initial election night predictions out of Ca will have Bush winning by a wide margin, after a lot of flurry this will eventually be debunked, but meanwhile Oh, Pa, Wi will be stolen. and yes, Fl is also a misdirection.

--- bindare

9:35 a.m.  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

To add my astute analysis, while an attack is possible I'm inclined to believe there is going to be a "thwarted" attack that will scare the pants off everyone and prove how Bush is protecting us from terrorists. Reasons?
1. I don't think Bush can afford a real attack and risk a Manila-style backlash.
2. An attack would also disprove the Bush claim that we're safer.
3. Ashcroft has been promoting the idea that an attack is certain for at least a couple months, preparing the ground.
4. Cheney won't stop saying Kerry will open us to a nuclear attack, priming the pump to catch some lurking terrorists.
5. Intercepting a claimed nuclear attack would still give grounds for martial law, claiming intelligence has knowledge of other imminent plans.
The problem is, I think the public, and certainly the press, will buy right into it.

10:54 p.m.  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

yes and no on the "twarted" attack:

all the given reason are great and i agree with them, but a spokesperson coming on tv and saying "we twarted an attack that could have ......" just will not do it.

the event, attack or twarted attack, must be photogenic, cameras must catch it, in real time preferably. (think 911: first plane gets cameras on site and second plane is the hollywood show.)

"twarted" attack will mean not many lives are lost. while property will be damaged (this is the visual) it will be "only because * reacted so swiftly and everything functioned so well that catastrophic loss of life was averted" and so on and so.

i'm looking for a plane (in the vicinity of a nuclear power plant or some such) that is diverted etc and eventally shot down. a boat or a truck might be better because the event will play out slower in time giving tv an oppurtunity to be there with their exclusives. heck, we are in the age of hollywood goes to washington which is why i suspect it will occur in Ca giving arnie an oppurtunity to front it all.

bin'dare

3:20 p.m.  
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