Blood, oil, and Gary Webb's death

Blood

The Mosul bombing likely has some Americans thinking, as they do only when the media reports a mass US casualty event, that Iraq could be Vietnam redux. I wish they'd stop that; this is no time for vainglorious optimism. Iraq is much worse.

It's not just about the clicking of the casualty counter, though it did take the better part of a decade for American casualties in Vietnam to reach the level of "sustainable losses" the US military is now taking in Iraq. Consider this: since just the November 2nd re-selection of George Bush, 200 American troops have been killed and 1,500 wounded. During the invasion's so-called period of "major combat," only 140 Americans lost their lives. (How many Iraqis? An uncounted and irrelevant multitude.) But the neocons want a Hard America; a warrior nation. Losing two or three or 19 recruits a day from the underclass means a bloody nose to them, and what's more, in some respect it's to be welcomed. Because a bully who has tasted his own blood can more easily be driven to ever greater acts of violence.

We need to remember that Vietnam was a "domino." It was a piece in a geopolitical game, and not a very important one at that. Vietnam lied on the fringe of America's sphere of interest. And still it took 58,000 American and millions of Vietnamese lives before it was over. ("Let's call it a draw," I can imagine Henry Kissinger saying to Andrei Gromyko. "Good match. Play again?")

Iraq will never be over, because it's not a domino. Dominating the diminishing oil reserves of the Middle East is not a sideshow; it is the essence of US strategic interest. We're talking about the centerpiece of empire in the New American Century. So this war - and it will not be contained to Iraq - will not be over until the American Empire falls.

Iraq is not Vietnam, because the war won't end with a dash for the helicopter on the roof of the Baghdad embassy. It will end with a dash for Marine One on the grounds of the White House.

"Mount Weather, soldier, and step on it!"

Oil

The geopolitical game being played today could be described as the endgame of the Industrial Age, at least so far as petroleum and natural gas are concerned. And no one is playing it with as much cunning, and perhaps grace under pressure, as China. As Richard Heinberg reports in Powerdown, in 2003 China accounted for a third of the world's growth in oil demand, and by 2030 it is expected to have more cars than the US and importing just as much oil. Since China's largest oilfied by far only produces 50 million tons a year, and is declining, where is it all going to come from? Into whose energy needs will its imports cut?

Just look at the headlines from the past several days:

Dec 19: China Says Growth May Top 9% This Year
Chinese President Hu Jintao said Sunday economic growth could exceed nine percent this year and foreign direct investment could top $60 billion. ..."Foreign trade volume for this year is expected to top $1.1 trillion. FDI is expected to top $60 billion this year." China has set an 8 percent growth target for 2005 and aims to peg inflation at around 4 percent, illustrating its eagerness to steer the economy to a soft landing.

Dec 20: China's Thirst for Oil Undercuts U.S. Effort on Iran
U.S. efforts to rein in Iran's suspected nuclear weapons program through economic sanctions are being stymied by China's increasing reliance on the Islamic nation for oil. The U.S. has tried for more than a year to get the United Nations Security Council to impose restrictions that might deter Iran from building an atomic bomb; China, which holds one of five vetoes on the council, is threatening to block those attempts. At the same time, a decades-long U.S. economic embargo of Iran is being undermined by a growing China-Iran trade partnership, highlighted by a $70 billion deal in October for oil and gas.

Dec 20: Chavez Heads to China to Expand Venezuela Energy Ties
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez will travel to China tomorrow in a bid to broaden energy ties with the world's fastest growing economy, Venezuela's foreign minister said. Venezuela, the world's fifth-largest oil supplier, is seeking to shift exports away from the U.S. and is in a position to supply growing demand from China, Foreign Minister Ali Rodriguez said at a press conference in Caracas. Chavez, 50, will travel with Energy and Mines Minister Rafael Ramirez, a ministry spokesman said.

Dec 22: Putin hints at Yukos China link
China could play a part in developing the oil production assets of Russian firm Yukos, which were sold to a mystery bidder on Sunday. Speaking during a trip to Germany, President Putin suggested that China - a major buyer of Yukos oil - could play some rule in the unit's future under its new owner. According to the Financial Times, President Putin said that the Chinese firm had not taken part in the controversial auction but had recently signed a memorandum of co-operation with Gazprom regarding oil projects in Russia. Gazprom told the Financial Times: "There is a real energy boom in Asia and particularly in China. In developing Gazprom....the eastern direction has been identified as a priority."

Dec 23: China in Line as U.S. Rival for Canada Oil
China's thirst for oil has brought it to the doorstep of the United States. Chinese energy companies are on the verge of striking ambitious deals in Canada in efforts to win access to some of the most prized oil reserves in North America. The deals may create unease for the first time since the 1970's in the traditionally smooth energy relationship between the United States and Canada.

And the US? "In effect," Heinberg writes, "China sells Americans cheap goods, then lends the money with which to buy them." And while Washington's emboldened and blinded idealogues wargame and construct a familiar flimsy case to justify aggression against Iran, China - and Russia, too - draw a line in the sand around Iran, and outflank the neocons on every front save for the military. And that gap can only close over the course of decades as the US bankrupts itself. Which puts the world in an extraordinarily precarious situation. But you already knew that.

For a metaphor, think of the solar life cycle.

If the United States is a main-sequence empire, then it has reached the red giant stage, having exhausted the resources of its youth and midlife. Its economy, its fiscal vitality, its moral capital are all spent. It is staking everything on the "full spectrum dominance" of its military, and it is burning that feverishly. Like a red giant, its imperial bloat is a sign of decay, not health. And its destiny is to fail. Collapse is inevitable. Possibly, given its size, into a black hole, which could suck the whole world in after it.

Even failing the worst case, this world is unsustainable, and should be unrecognizable in 50 years.

Final Thoughts on Gary Webb

I won't say "case closed," because that's positively Posnerian, but the best evidence now suggests that Gary Webb did indeed take his own life.

I believe a good working hypothesis for the Bush years is to assume that nothing is as it first appears. After all, nothing, neither substantial nor inconsequential, said by Bush or his thugs has been found true, and virtually every one of their official narratives is a tapestry of outrageous lies. I give no benefit of the doubt to this crowd. So when a terrorist attack serves the greater interests of the Grand Imperial Octopus, or potential threats to the cabal suffer accidental death or are said to have taken their own lives, my first assumption will continue to be, They Did It.

Naturally, with such a sweeping presumption, sometimes they won't have done it. Not in the actionable sense. And while it can be said the machinery of state and its MOCKINGBIRD media did kill Gary Webb, it does appear he did, indeed, pull the trigger of his own volition. (And yes, even twice: the first bullet missed his brain, and exited his jaw.)

Michael Ruppert has posted his thoughts on Webb's memorial service, and makes a vigorous case for the wounds having been self-inflicted. But it was Lisa Pease's heartfelt, well-told and sad account that settled the issue for me. (Pease makes a cameo in Dark Alliance by forwarding to Webb a 30-year old story that reveals his early critic, The Washington Post's Walter Pincus, to have been a CIA asset.)

We don't want Gary Webb's death to have been a suicide. If he must be dead, then it's an odd comfort of sorts, conforming to our diminished expectations of justice, to imagine him a martyred hero. And though he's no less a hero, it doesn't seem that's the story Webb left us. So unless some evidence appears to overturn it, this is where my speculation regarding his death ends.

On the last page of Dark Alliance Webb wrote, "One of the questions I have been asked many times since this story broke is this: Now that the facts are out there, what can we do? My answer, depressing and cynical as it may be, is always the same. Not much. Not now."

The burden of bearing something like the truth while criminals in high places go unpunished is hard enough. Webb was punished for telling a truth that was never meant to be told. It crushed him, and it killed him. We can begin to honour his memory by recognizing the truth of his death, life and work, and passing it on. We dishonour his memory, and our own purpose, if we prefer to spin a speculative legend.